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400 ppm Milestone Options
 
Nathanial.Dread
#1 Posted : 9/29/2016 5:16:34 PM

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I'm sure we've seen this on social media, but given our unique relationship with science and the natural world, I figured it might spark some discussion here.

https://scripps.ucsd.edu...ng-the-annual-low-point/

Quote:
We are now approaching the annual low point in the Mauna Loa CO2 curve, which typically happens around the last week of September but varies slightly from year to year. Recent daily and weekly values have remained above 400 parts per million. From this it’s already clear that the monthly value for September will be above 400 ppm, probably around 401 ppm. September is typically but not always the lowest month of the year.

The low point reflects the transition between summer and fall, when the uptake of CO2 by vegetation weakens and is overtaken by the release of CO2 from soils.

Is it possible that October 2016 will yield a lower monthly value than September and dip below 400 ppm? Almost impossible. Over the past two decades, there were four years (2002, 2008, 2009, and 2012) in which the monthly value for October was LOWER than September. But in those years, the decrease from September to October was at most 0.45 ppm – which would not seem to be enough to push October values below 400 ppm this year. The monthly value for October will therefore almost certainly also stay above 400 ppm and probably will be higher than 401 ppm. By November, we will be marching up the rising half of the cycle, pushing towards new highs and perhaps even breaking the 410 ppm barrier.

Concentrations will probably hover around 401 ppm over the next month as we sit near the annual low point. Brief excursions towards lower values are still possible but it already seems safe to conclude that we won’t be seeing a monthly value below 400 ppm this year – or ever again for the indefinite future.


For context, the 400ppm mark represents a symbolic tipping point, where positive feedback mechanisms begin to pick up steam, meaning serious climate change, is probably here to stay.

Blessings
~ND

"There are many paths up the same mountain."

 

Good quality Syrian rue (Peganum harmala) for an incredible price!
 
Ufostrahlen
#2 Posted : 9/29/2016 6:38:30 PM

xͭ͆͝͏̮͔̜t̟̬̦̣̟͉͈̞̝ͣͫ͞,̡̼̭̘̙̜ͧ̆̀̔ͮ́ͯͯt̢̘̬͓͕̬́ͪ̽́s̢̜̠̬̘͖̠͕ͫ͗̾͋͒̃͛̚͞ͅ


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Graph:

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Koornut
#3 Posted : 9/29/2016 11:42:48 PM

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In south-east oz, we have had a surprisingly wet winter and spring in certain parts. Which should help vegetation growth going into summer. Unfortunately though, drought is a constant and the grassy bush land will dry out creating a perfect storm for bushfires with extra fuel from the growth. Controlled burns are vital to prevent out of control bushfires, but the hippies scream and protest when this is proposed.
These are some deep issues that are rarely discussed in the town square. Australia is an extract and sell economy, always has been. This has never been more evident than the proposed port near the barrier reef being steamrolled though parliament, whose main purpose is to export coal to SE Asia.

But we are beginning to see more extreme weather events that will be impossible to ignore, Queensland has been in drought for half a decade http://mobile.abc.net.au...atus/7405286?pfmredir=sm

One of my many jobs is in the distribution of plantation pine to China and India. I work with shipping containers, thousands of them. Each one is subleased by the owner. Who makes profit off of it when it is in circulation. Many are investments. Banks own millions of them. It is in their interest to keep the ships rolling over the waters, burning that filthy, dirty diesel. Keep the export/import machine alive and watch the profits roll in.
This is an unsustainable practice. Manufacturing needs to be localised and automated.
This planet is screwed. The nihilist in me prays for a big CME or comet, let the tardigrades and cockroaches and field mice start over.
Maybe we can build a pyriamid somewhere that chronicles our mistakes for future intelligent spider civilisations.
Inconsistency is in my nature.
The simple PHYLLODE tek

I'm just waiting for these bloody plants to grow
 
Nathanial.Dread
#4 Posted : 9/30/2016 1:58:21 AM

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Here's a slightly more pantsoiling graph:



Blessings
~ND
"There are many paths up the same mountain."

 
Ufostrahlen
#5 Posted : 9/30/2016 3:04:03 AM

xͭ͆͝͏̮͔̜t̟̬̦̣̟͉͈̞̝ͣͫ͞,̡̼̭̘̙̜ͧ̆̀̔ͮ́ͯͯt̢̘̬͓͕̬́ͪ̽́s̢̜̠̬̘͖̠͕ͫ͗̾͋͒̃͛̚͞ͅ


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Sphorange wrote:
This planet is screwed. The nihilist in me prays for a big CME or comet, let the tardigrades and cockroaches and field mice start over.
Maybe we can build a pyriamid somewhere that chronicles our mistakes for future intelligent spider civilisations.

Chill out, the planet is already getting greener and doing fine. Fear is the tool for making politics, whether it's left or right. If enough damage occurs, people are forced to change, whether they like it or not. If people don't change, not enough damage has occurred.

Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds
https://www.nasa.gov/fea...ilization-greening-earth

Written from my CO2 neutral powered netbook.
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Endurance
#6 Posted : 9/30/2016 7:44:11 AM

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Ufostrahlen wrote:

Chill out, the planet is already getting greener and doing fine.

Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds
https://www.nasa.gov/fea...ilization-greening-earth


Personally, I'd be hesitant to suggest that the earth is "doing fine" based on select positive spin-offs associated with climate variability/change. Numerous other studies (Walther et al., 2002; Bellard et al., 2012; Deutsch et al., 2015 etc), identify negative impacts associated with climate change, so maybe the earth is not doing fine? Imo, the majority of evidence points towards more detrimental effects as opposed to positive spin-offs.

 
Ufostrahlen
#7 Posted : 9/30/2016 8:57:36 AM

xͭ͆͝͏̮͔̜t̟̬̦̣̟͉͈̞̝ͣͫ͞,̡̼̭̘̙̜ͧ̆̀̔ͮ́ͯͯt̢̘̬͓͕̬́ͪ̽́s̢̜̠̬̘͖̠͕ͫ͗̾͋͒̃͛̚͞ͅ


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Endurance wrote:
Personally, I'd be hesitant to suggest that the earth is "doing fine" based on select positive spin-offs associated with climate variability/change. Numerous other studies (Walther et al., 2002; Bellard et al., 2012; Deutsch et al., 2015 etc), identify negative impacts associated with climate change, so maybe the earth is not doing fine? Imo, the majority of evidence points towards more detrimental effects as opposed to positive spin-offs.

Alright, the earth is doomed and it's a good idea to commit suicide because I fear death.



Or maybe I just chill out and wait for the rioters to raid my neighborhood. I'll politely point them to my meat-eating and large car driving neighbors. Lots of beef there for a good ol fashioned looting. Or maybe start with the Ayahuasca tourists, who feel the need put CO2 in the atmosphere some "spiritual healing"? Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Maybe even shut down Burning man and chill out with your local crew instead with Paris Hilton and mostly white upperclass hedonists? But, but... my meat, my jungle adventure, my festival, my truck, my A/C!!!1 Crying or very sad Crying or very sad

Personally I would invest as much in wind farms or fusion energy as possible, so you can get protection from the state power or the local milita. Coal rollers will be the first who go extinct. You can see this already in the stock charts, I don't think there's a coal energy business with a bright future.

Quote:
China National Coal Group Corporation, formerly China National Coal Industry Import and Export Corporation,[1] is a coal mining enterprise controlled by State Council of the People's Republic of China. It is the second largest state-owned coal mining enterprise in Mainland China, and the third largest in the world, just after Shenhua Group.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1898.HK?ltr=1
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1088.HK?ltr=1


Quote:
Air pollution in China has gotten so bad that a study by the World Bank found that air pollution kills 750,000 people every year in China.[39] Issued in response to record-high levels of air pollution in 2012 and 2013, the State Council’s September 2013 Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution reiterated the need to reduce coal’s share in China’s energy mix to 65% by 2017.[40] Amidst growing public concern, social unrest incidents are growing around the country. For example, in December 2011 the government suspended plans to expand a coal-fired power plant in the city of Haimen after 30,000 local residents staged a violent protest against it, because "the coal-fired power plant was behind a rise in the number of local cancer patients, environmental pollution and a drop in the local fishermen's catch."[41]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_China


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downwardsfromzero
#8 Posted : 9/30/2016 11:03:45 PM

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Why the looting scenarios? (I get the irony sarcasm, btw, Ufostr.!) Have people forgotten how to co-operate entirely?

It's easy to forget about collective action when sat staring at a computer screen...


And I'm glad I've moved somewhere flat where I can easily ride my bike and I don't need to re-mortgage my life to afford a train-fare!




“There is a way of manipulating matter and energy so as to produce what modern scientists call 'a field of force'. The field acts on the observer and puts him in a privileged position vis-à-vis the universe. From this position he has access to the realities which are ordinarily hidden from us by time and space, matter and energy. This is what we call the Great Work."
― Jacques Bergier, quoting Fulcanelli
 
arcologist
#9 Posted : 10/1/2016 3:08:37 AM

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downwardsfromzero wrote:
Why the looting scenarios? (I get the irony sarcasm, btw, Ufostr.!) Have people forgotten how to co-operate entirely?

It's easy to forget about collective action when sat staring at a computer screen...


Global warming will cause a reduction in the carrying capacity of the planet because there won't be as much arable land, therefore a shortage of important resources (water, food). Mass-produced food will have to be transported from farther and farther away (using oil, probably), further exacerbating food scarcity/emissions. To make matters worse, human population is still growing exponentially and we are already way over the carrying capacity even now (assuming western lifestyle). Traditional food/water supply lines will be disrupted, especially in countries that are already unable to feed their populations. This will cause massive migration and displacement of people, and that usually leads to xenophobia and potential for conflict (who takes the refugees?). It's very likely that conflict over resources will lead to world war sometime in the next 10-30 years.

We've brewed a perfect storm of catastrophe and I don't see any realistic way to stop it. Doing so would require a global initiative to control population, eliminate fossil fuel use, switch to local sustainable agriculture techniques, and eliminate consumerism/capitalism (the worst offender of all, the drive for profit and the creation of an infinite number of useless gadgets causes more damage to the environment due to the resource mining/manufacturing/transportation). All of these drastic steps would have to be undertaken worldwide in the next few years to make a difference, even then it might not be enough to reverse the positive feedback mechanisms already underway. We're screwed.

I think the best way to ensure survival into the future would be to reduce your dependence on society, grow your own food, move to a location that is likely to stay a temperate climate during your lifetime, and stay away from populated areas. This is my plan. Cities are wholly unsustainable and will eat themselves alive once it's not possible to truck in fresh food from hundreds of miles away every day.
 
Ufostrahlen
#10 Posted : 10/1/2016 8:49:42 AM

xͭ͆͝͏̮͔̜t̟̬̦̣̟͉͈̞̝ͣͫ͞,̡̼̭̘̙̜ͧ̆̀̔ͮ́ͯͯt̢̘̬͓͕̬́ͪ̽́s̢̜̠̬̘͖̠͕ͫ͗̾͋͒̃͛̚͞ͅ


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downwardsfromzero wrote:
Why the looting scenarios? (I get the irony sarcasm, btw, Ufostr.!) Have people forgotten how to co-operate entirely?

Haha, I've been sarcastic indeed, but actually I doubt that people are uncooperative. I mean look at your computer you're writing on, it's a thing build on thousands of years of cooperative action. That's why I said the earth is getting greener already. People/governments are addressing this problem. With the necessary intensity? Probably not.

Personally for me it all boils down to an energy problem. Where do you get your energy from without damaging the environment (too much)? So if people can't answer the question, they're left with two options: either lower the energy consumption or ignore CO2 pollution - the graph is a hoax, we're coming out of an ice age phase!1

But what if people can address the energy problem? Why not switching to a Tesla 3 (or an E-Golf) and solar panels? Why not buy shares of a windfarm? Or because you mentioned collective action: start crowdfunding fusion reactors? Skunk Works can do it privately, so can other private entities.

Just intensify clean energy research. Privately and collectively. Actually very easy if ~ 1bn people are really interested in clean air and water. That's $71 per person, if you would buy all the Lockheed Martin shares as a whole. And you get a defense corp. for free with your clean energy research project which you can sell for ~ $60bn (ITER costs are $10bn), if you have no need for it. Maybe keep 10% of the defense shares for taking out militant coal rollers.
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